Do early-season hurricanes result in greater transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases??

The timing of a hurricane is one of the common primary factors influencing its impact on the spread of mosquito-borne infectious diseases such as West Nile Virus, dengue, chikungunya and Zika etc.

Researchers from Georgia State and Arizona State University developed a mathematical model to study the impact of heavy rainfall events (HREs) such as hurricanes on the transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases in temperate areas of the world, including the southern coastal U.S. In the impact of this type of extreme weather event, the mosquito population often booms in the presence of stagnant water. At the same time, the breakdown of public and private health infrastructure can set people at increased risk of infection. The study, which was published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, found that the risk of a disease outbreak is highest if the HRE occurs early in the transmission season, or the period of time when mosquitoes are able to pass on the virus to humans.

According to the study, an HRE that occurs on July 1 results in 70% fewer disease cases compared to an HRE that occurs on June 1.

Mosquitos are very sensitive to temperature not only in terms of their ability to survive and reproduce, but also in their ability to infect individuals. The warmer it is, the faster an infected mosquito will be able to transmit the virus. Considering that mosquitos have an average lifespan of less than two weeks that temperature difference can have a dramatic effect on disease outbreaks.

Population displacement can also affect the spread of vector-borne disease in a few ways, the researchers found. When people opt to leave the area, it reduces the number of local infections,

while potentially increasing the number of infections elsewhere. However, those individuals who are not displaced during an HRE may be at higher risk because standard measures to combat mosquito breeding are neglected when fewer people remain in the area. And as people move into a disaster area to offer emergency relief or when they return after the event the number of local infections rises.

Since mosquito-borne diseases tend to be spread by the movement of people rather than the movement of mosquitoes, disaster-induced movements of people can shift where and when outbreaks occur…..

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